US Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida

The U.S. economy is in a good place, and the baseline outlook is favorable. The median expectation from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants’ most recent Summary of Economic Projections is for GDP growth to be around 2 percent in 2019, for growth to continue near this pace next year, and for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to rise gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective.2 The unemployment rate, at 3.5 percent, is at a half-century low, and wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation. There is no evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation.

But despite this favorable baseline outlook, the U.S. economy confronts some evident risks in this the 11th year of economic expansion. Business fixed investment has slowed notably since last year, exports are contracting on a year-over-year basis, and indicators of manufacturing activity are weakening. Global growth estimates continue to be marked down, and global disinflationary pressures cloud the outlook for U.S. inflation.

U.S. inflation remains muted. Over the 12 months through August, PCE inflation is running at 1.4 percent, and core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is running at 1.8 percent.