Puerto Rico Treasury Department Agents, and a Puerto Rico Ports Authority Agent deliver food and water to a family sharing the only room they have left after Hurricane Maria destroyed their home in the mountains around Utuado, Puerto Rico; photo credit U.S. Department of Agriculture Master Sgt. Joshua DeMotts/1st Combat Camera Squadron. The National Center for Biotechnology Information, PubMed
Kishore N1, Marqués D1, Mahmud A1, Kiang MV1, Rodriguez I1, Fuller A1, Ebner P1, Sorensen C1, Racy F1, Lemery J1, Maas L1, Leaning J1, Irizarry RA1, Balsari S1, Buckee CO1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
Quantifying the effect of natural disasters on society is critical forrecoveryof public health services and infrastructure. The death toll can be difficult to assess in the aftermath of a major disaster. In September 2017, Hurricane Maria caused massive infrastructural damage to Puerto Rico, but its effect on mortality remains contentious. The official death count is 64.
METHODS:
Using a representative, stratified sample, we surveyed 3299 randomly chosen households across Puerto Rico to produce an independent estimate of all-cause mortality after the hurricane. Respondents were asked about displacement, infrastructure loss, and causes of death. We calculated excess deaths by comparing our estimated post-hurricane mortality rate with official rates for the same period in 2016.
RESULTS:
From the survey data, we estimated a mortality rate of 14.3 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.8 to 18.9) per 1000 persons from September 20 through December 31, 2017. This rate yielded a total of 4645 excess deaths during this period (95% CI, 793 to 8498), equivalent to a 62% increase in the mortality rate as compared with the same period in 2016. However, this number is likely to be an underestimate because of survivor bias. The mortality rate remained high through the end of December 2017, and one-third of the deaths were attributed to delayed or interrupted health care. Hurricane-related migration was substantial.
CONCLUSIONS:
This household-based survey suggests that the number of excess deaths related to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico is more than 70 times the official estimate. (Funded by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and others.).
✔@realDonaldTrump
3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000…
✔@realDonaldTrump
…..This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!
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